Independent contributor, Tortilla con Sal, October 4th 2018
How can it be that many solidarity activists and progressives believe the current unrest in Nicaragua represents a popular, broad based movement for democracy against the brutal and repressive Ortega dictatorship; while some others believe that this has been a well orchestrated, right wing coup attempt financed by the U.S.
To understand what is really happening, I decided to compare what a similar situation to the political unrest in Nicaragua would be like in the U.S. For this comparison, let’s assume that Hillary Clinton had actually beaten Trump.
It would be like President Clinton announcing social security reformsi which protect worker’s benefits and which reject corporate America’s (Wall Street) more neoliberal proposal which would have eliminated benefits, increased the retirement age, and doubled the number of weeks workers would have needed to work to qualify for benefits.
It would be like corporate America organizing student protestsii over the Clinton government’s social security reforms which are described on social media as cuts to benefits and increased contributions for workers.
It would be like Black Lives Matter, Occupy Wall Street and other civil society and media groups joining the protests, with these organizations having received over 1.5 billion dollarsiii in grants from the Russian government for “democracy and human rights promotion”.
It would be like the Green Partyiv, having long been frustrated by the Democratic Party for abandoning the middle and working class, deciding to join this protest movement. The Green party has long been critical of President Clinton and the Democratic Party accusing them of being neoliberal, having close ties to Wall Street and corporate America and of no longer representing a real progressive option to the Republican Party.
It would be like, in an inexplicable, crazy turn of events, corporate America, Black Lives Matter, Occupy Wall Street and the Green Party all come together and form the Civic Alliance for Justice and Democracy.
It would be like the Koch Brothersv actually arriving at the first protest, standing on top of a their vehicle, waving a US flag and pledging their full and continued support!
It would be like in order to overthrow the Clinton government, Black Lives Matter, Occupy Wall Street and the Green Party using the Russian government funding to carry out a massive and coordinated, social media campaignvi with thousands of fake profiles, sponsored Facebook ads, and thousands of WhatsApp messages, that distorted facts and included a false reportvii of a dead student at the first protest; and false reports of a “student massacre” on the second day of protests.
It would be like on the second day of protests, demonstrators also attacking with gunfire and burning several government buildings in several U.S. cities.viii
It would be like the false reports of a “student massacre” succeeding in drawing out more protesters, including large groups of students at universities and huge marches in several U.S. cities in which several protesters are killed, many with sniper fire.
It would be like President Clinton rescinding the social security reforms after 4 days of protesting, but the protests actually continue, now with the purpose of demanding that Clinton resigns immediately.
It would be like half of the US network television channels and the major newspapers also backing the Civic Alliance and blaming these sniper fire deaths on the Clinton government and the police. The attacks to government buildings are also blamed on the Clinton government.
It would be like the social media campaign, within the first days of the protesting, publishing hateful and violence inciting posts and reports, calling the police and President Clinton murderers who are committing genocide on their own people (killing unarmed protesters), and demonizing anyone who supports Hilary Clinton and calling them “bootlickers” and “toadies”.
It would be like anyone who questions why the government would attack and burn their own buildings, or why, since the only reason people are protesting is due to the killing of unarmed protesters, would the Clinton government send out snipers to kill themix, are also demonized for supporting and defending a brutal regime which blatantly disregards basic human rights.
It would be like students who had been protesting at two public universities, being overtaken by criminal gangs, who take over both universities and began using them as a base in order to commit serious crimes, then ransacking and burning parts of each before leavingx. (U.S. police allow these groups to to happen)
It would be like the students who were overtaken having a press conferencexi to denounce these non-student, criminal gangs, and the Civic Alliance who were providing them with weapons and supplies.
It would be like even though there is video footagexii of these armed, criminal elements at the university with members of the Civic Alliance, these students are demeaned and criticized because they were members of a student union affiliated with the Democratic Party. One of the students who participated in the press conference is targeted by the criminal gangs who drag him from his girlfriend’s house, beat him, shoot him three times and them dumped him on the side of the roadxiii.
It would be like many of the U.S. media calling on economic sanctions and even military intervention from Russia in order to overthrow Clinton.
It would be like members of the Civic Alliancexiv going to China to push for the passage of the “USA ACT” which would mean China would cancel all loans to the U.S. (This is public knowledge, yet the U.S. government doesn’t issue a warning or pursue treason charges against these Civic Alliance members).
It would be like members of the Civic Alliance participating in a march while holding pictures of protesters who were supposedly killed by police during the protests; but later, several of these people turn up to deny they had been killedxv; and other families turn up to report their loved ones had died in circumstances unrelated to the protests.
It would be like, after the protests become more violent with protestors attacking schools and health centers, looting stores, and setting up road blocks on several major U.S. highways and in several major U.S. cities, President Clinton decides to call a national dialogue and the Civic Alliance demanding as a precondition to start the dialogue, that the government withdraw the police to their barracks.xvi
It would be like President Clinton accepting this precondition and the Civil Alliance taking advantage of the absence of the police to strengthen and set up more roadblocks and then begin paying and arming criminal groups to control themxvii.
It would be like, when the dialogue finally begins, the opposition’s sole message is that Clinton must go, with no explanation on what alternative or plan of government they offer.
It would be like the Catholic Church, who was the mediator for the national dialogue, had actually been actively supporting the Civic Alliance. In a private meeting, a group of Bishops hand Hillary Clinton a letterxviii asking for her resignation, and another priest advisesxix Clinton for her own good to resign before it is too late, since “we don’t want her, her husband or her children to be killed”
It would be like the Catholic Church supporting the Civic Alliance in their Sunday masses, and even using the Church to hide weapons and armed delinquents who were carrying out crimes at the roadblocks.xx
It would be like the Clinton government allowing the roadblocks to halt traffic on major highways and cripple the economy for over 2 months without doing anything for fear of being blamed for repression.
It would be like these roadblocks becoming areas of extreme violence and crime, including kidnapping, torture, murder and even burning people alivexxi.
It would be like, while the Civic Alliance talks about the Clinton Government carrying out genocide; Democrats, Clinton supporters, and police officers are targeted by those running the roadblocks and are kidnaped, tortured and murdered; and some of their homes are burnt downxxii.
It would be like, while the Civic Alliance talks about repression and freedom of speech; Democrats and Clinton supporters, fearful for their lives, disappear from social media and for weeks remain prisoners in their own homes while the roadblocks are up. Meanwhile, Civic Alliance supporters constantly spread hateful and incendiary social media posts apparently without fear of the “repressive” Clinton “regime”.
It would be like police stations in 2 major U.S. cities being attacked with mortars, Molotov cocktails, and gunfire every day for over a month as the police remain in their barracks on orders from President Clinton to not confront the “protesters”xxiii.
It would be like, after the vast majority of people in the U.S. grow increasingly tired of the roadblocks and begin to realize the violence was actually coming from the Civic Alliance, President Clinton finally decides to order to remove the roadblocks, and, even though it meant more police ended up being wounded, doing so in a careful and strategic way to ensure as few casualties of “protesters” as possible.
It would be like, after the roadblocks are removed and after the delinquents who controlled them were either captured or flee the country, all of the violence subsides (with the exception of several Clinton supporters who are murdered by the opposition in subsequent weeksxxiv).
It would be like, after the roadblocks are removed, people were able to free themselves of the fear they felt during the weeks the roadblocks had held them hostage, and begin to rally to support the Clinton government in huge demonstrationsxxv (thousands of people demonstrating several times a week for several weeks in multiple cities—these demonstrations are far larger than those of the Civic Alliance who have lost support as people began to see the violence was coming from them).
It would be like President Clinton inviting the Organization of American States and U.S. and international human rights organizations to investigate and they side with the Civic Alliance, blame the Clinton government for all the deaths (including exaggerating the list of deathsxxvi), and denounce the government for attacking the “peaceful” and “unarmed” protesters at the roadblocks. The OAS and human rights organizations entirely ignore the police and government institutions evidence of roadblock violence or the violence carried out by those who had taken over the universities.
It would be like the Civic Alliance, opposition media, OAS, and human rights groups after realizing they have lost the battle in the U.S., deciding to carry out a massive international media campaign of misinformation and fake news, including false reports of missing peoplexxvii and political prisonersxxviii, in order to seek support from Russia and China and calling for sanctions and military intervention, including bringing up the issue at the UN Security Councilxxix.
It is hard to think of any scenario in which even one of these events could actually take place in the U.S., which is why we should wonder how and why it actually did happen in Nicaragua.
i In Nicaragua, the government had been meeting for over a year with business leaders (COSEP-Supreme Council of Private Businesses) and labor unions in order to resolve the Social Security issue. The government proposed small increases in contributions from employees (.75% increase) and the government (1.75%), with a larger increase for employees (3.5%). It also included shifting 5% of retiree pensions into the health system for better coverage, and maintaining all of the social security benefits. Perhaps most significantly, however, the government was going to eliminate the “salary ceiling” which allowed the wealthiest Nicaraguans to pay only a portion of their salary into social security. COSEP of course, was against these increases and had been proposing (along with the IMF) a more neoliberal model which included eliminating benefits such as the Christmas bonus/13th month salary and the reduced pensions, increasing the retirement age, doubling the number of weeks a worker must pay into the system to receive benefits (750 to 1,500), and privatizing hospitals and clinics.
ii Since the Nicaragua government was steadfast on maintaining the benefits, COSEP abandoned the negotiations. When the government went ahead and passed the resolution based on their proposals, COSEP urged students from private universities to take the streets in protests. There was also an immediate social media campaign describing the government’s social security reforms as cutting benefits and increasing contributions, sparking more people to join the protests.
iii In 2017, Nicaragua civil society organizations and media companies received over $30 million from USAID and the National Endowment for Democracy which in comparison per person in the U.S. would be about $1 .5 billion. Also, while many solidarity activists and progressives describe them as “left,” some would argue that the Nicaragua NGO’s involved in the protests are actually more aligned with the Tea Party than Black Lives Matter or Occupy Wall Street.
iv In Nicaragua, it was the MRS (Sandinista Renovation Movement) that was involved in the protests. The MRS has also long been critical of the Sandinista party, accusing them of abandoning their socialist, revolutionary ideals, of being “neoliberal”, and of working too closely with the Chamber of Commerce (COSEP), Catholic Church, etc. While many solidary activists and progressives believe the MRS represent the revolutionary and progressive ideals of Sandino, others would argue that the MRS are actually more aligned to the right and not a good comparison for the Green Party.
v In Nicaragua it was Piero Coen, the richest person in Nicaragua who showed up at the first protest to pledge his support.
vi A coordinated, social media campaign was immediately launched with hashtags such as #OccupyINSS (INSS is the Nicaragua Institute of Social Security), #SOSINSS , and #Nicaraguaspring, which included fake videos and false reports, such as the report that public hospitals were refusing to treat injured protesters, fake videos of “injured” students being treated in universities, and fake videos of students in universities under attack by police.
vii After the first protest on April 18th, there was a false report of a student protester killed by police which was shared all over social media. After the second day of protests on April 19th, there was a false report of a student massacre (3 people actually were killed, but they were not killed together and one was a police officer, one was killed in cross fire while returning home from work, and the other was a member of the Sandinista Youth organization who was shot while trying to protect the Tipitapa town hall from “protesters” who were trying to set it on fire).
viii On the second day of protests there were several attacks on government building is several cities
ix The more violence the worse for the Nicaragua government since it was all being blamed on them. The social security reforms that the students were initially protesting didn’t even stand up to critique and hardly posed a threat to the government, since the government’s proposal actually defended the worker’s benefits from the more neoliberal proposal of COSEP and the IMF. By sending out snipers to kill protesters, the administration had everything to lose and absolutely nothing to gain. On the other hand, the opposition, one could argue, had everything to gain with an increase in deaths.
x Criminal groups overtake students in order to take over the UPOLI and UNAN universities from which they carried out violent crimes and then destroyed parts of each university before leaving causing millions of dollars in damages.
xi Students hold a press conference denouncing the MRS for funding and supplying arms to criminal groups who take over the UPOLI university.
xii Felix Maradiaga, a main leader of the Civic Alliance appears with armed “protesters” at the UPOLI university. The police link him to organized crime, arms trafficking, and terrorism.
xiii One of the students at the press conference is later targeted by the criminal gangs. They drag him from his girlfriend’s house, beat him, shoot him three times and dump him on the side of the road.
xiv Members of the Civic Alliance in Nicaragua visited Senators Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz and Congresswoman Ileana Ros-Lehtinen in an effort to gain support for U.S. sanctions (NICA ACT) and potential military intervention.
xv One of several videos of families whose children appear in the list of dead protesters but who were not involved. There were also people who appear on the list who had not actually died.
xvi The Civic Alliance and the Nicaragua Episcopal Conference (NEC) demanded that the Ortega government meet 4 conditions for the start of the dialogue, including the withdrawal of the police to their barracks.
xvii Weapons included AK-47’s, sniper rifles, drones, and land mines
xx The NEC supports the roadblocks, uses churches to hide weapons and criminals who have committed crimes and some priests are actually present during tortures.
xxi Roadblocks in Nicaragua become areas of extreme violence and torture.
xxii Sandinista are targeted by those running the roadblocks and are kidnapped, tortured and murdered
xxiii Police stations in Nicaragua were under attack for weeks while the police remained in their barracks without retaliating.
xxiv Well known Sandinista, Lenin Mendiola was shot and killed by armed delinquents participating in a Civic Alliance march in Matagalpa.
xxv The Sandinistas organize massive weekly marches which clearly show that the majority of Nicaraguans support the government.
xxvi Human rights organizations exaggerated the death toll to drive regime change and sanctions
xxvii Human rights organizations admit there are no reports of missing people in Nicaragua
xxviii Nicaraguan authorities expose the lies and falsehoods of human rights NGOs and other bodies like the OAS and the UN
xxix UN Security Council discusses Nicaragua for the first time.