editorial at/@
tortillaconsal punto/dot com
Karla Jacobs, September 10th 2010
Recent events on the Nicaraguan political scene suggest the forces which, for years now, have been trying to either successfully undermine Arnoldo Alemán's leadership of the most important right wing party in the country (the Constitutional Liberal Party, PLC,) or create an equally important alternative party, are at present involved in a last ditch attempt to achieve their goals.
Until last week, the Permanent Human Rights Commission (CPDH) - a foreign government funded NGO that has historically worked to promote a right wing agenda in Nicaragua - was committed to organizing interparty primary elections for the right wing forces as part of the much built up attempt to create one single opposition alliance going into next year's presidential elections.
Among other parties both the PLC and Eduardo Montealegre's "Vamos con Eduardo" Movement (MVE) had planned to take part in the elections.
On September 3rd, though, the CPDH announced its decision not to continue organizing the primary election process. Going by CPDH president Marcos Carmona' comments reported in the press, this decision was based on the different parties' inability to maintain even the most basic level of mutual trust.
The MVE seemed to welcome the decision saying that, under the circumstances, it was more appropriate to choose a candidate via high level interparty consensus. Alemán, on the other hand, continues insisting on the need for primaries, saying he would only renounce his candidacy if beaten at primary elections.
Even prior to the CPDH's announcement, though, the MVE was already involved in a series of intense meetings with other anti Sandinista, anti Alemán right wing forces including the Nicaraguan Liberal Alliance (ALN), the Sandinista Renovation Movement (MRS), the Conservative Party, a number of private sector organizations and several foreign government funded NGOs, with a view to choosing a consensus candidate for the proposed multi-sector, anti FSLN electoral coalition, an electoral coalition Montealegre says should represent a "unified and authentic" opposition.
Pancho Madrigal for President
These meetings resulted in the decision to offer the presidential candidacy, Fabio Gadea Mantilla, owner of the reactionary Radio Corporación radio station who is currently a deputy for the PLC in the Central American Parliament (PARLACEN) and who, until very recently, had not been considered a dissident within PLC circles.
Fabio Gadea, a high level member of the PLC and creator of the long standing and much loved "Pancho Madrigal" radio soap, accepted Montealegre's invitation to stand as candidate for the newly founded electoral alliance on September 7th. During his acceptance to run for office, Gadea said he was willing to lead the new alliance "with or without the PLC".
Undeniably, though, the new political coalition Montealegre is trying to set up would greatly benefit from the PLC's grass roots organization. Past experience in Nicaragua has shown that electoral alliances without a well established party organization have little chance of defending whatever electoral success they may achieve.
Until a few weeks ago, Gadea's loyalty to Arnoldo Aleman's PLC had not been questioned. Not only did Gadea vote for Alemán as the PLC presidential candidate during the PLC convention in July, but he is also the father-in-law of Alemán's daughter, María Dolores.
His personal and political ties to the PLC leader have led certain political players, including PLC dissident Sergio Quintero García, to suggest that Gadea's candidacy is nothing more than a ruse set up by Alemán himself in which, at some point after Montealegre officially renounced his own presidential candidacy (which he did on September 7th), Gadea is to step down hailing Alemán as the best man to lead the opposition into next year's elections.
The question of whether or not Gadea is acting in ernest by accepting Montealegre's offer aside though, it is far from clear if the radio commentator and writer would stand a reasonable chance of encouraging much support among the Nicaraguan population.
While it is true that Gadea's Pancho Madrigal program is no less than a cultural institution in Nicaragua and has been for decades, Gadea himself is not a particularly well known figure among Nicaragua's predominantly young population.
At the age of 79, it would seem unlikely Gadea could muster much enthusiasm among the more than 50% of Nicaraguan voters under the age of 30 whose minds are still fresh with the memory of the national debacle provoked by aging former president Enrique Bolaños who left office in 2006 at the age of 78.
Smear campaign against Arnoldo Alemán
The other aspect of the strategy currently being put into practise by Montealegre's "unified and authentic" opposition is a smear campaign against Alemán which aims to force the former president to step down as presidential candidate.
"Reelection is the cancer of the nation. Step down Dr Alemán," is the slogan on banners that have appeared in towns and cities across Nicaragua during recent weeks.
Simultaneously, Montealegre and others have been publicly voicing the opinion that, should the right wing lose next year's elections, it would be due to Alemán's refusal to step down as candidate and allow the PLC to take part in the united opposition alliance Montealegre is trying to set up.
Over the last few days, Montealegre has stepped up the psycological pressure against Alemán saying he has information to suggest an internal rebellion against the PLC leader is about to take place within the party.
So far though, Alemán, who continues to insist on the need for interparty primaries, has not given any signs of bowing to the pressure imposed on him from other opposition sectors and is himself involved in a smear campaign against Montealegre's faction which claims that it is in fact the MVE that is provoking division among the right wing.
Meanwhile, the intense polarization between Alemán's followers and Montealegre's followers as a result of recent events has put smaller parties like the Conservative party and the ALN in s strong negotiating position.
On September 8th representatives of the PLC and of the Conservative Party agreed to continue with the organization of interparty primary elections. It was also agreed that Fabio Gadea would be invited to take part as the MVE candidate.
A key factor in the minds of all sectors of the right wing opposition is the pending election of 25 top posts within different State institutions including the Supreme Court of Justice and the Supreme Electoral Council. This election represents a golden opportunity to maintain, or to claim for the first time, influence in crucial places.
Candidates for these elections, which will take place in the National Assembly, require a super majority of 56 votes to be approved for office.
This 56 vote requirement makes it impossible for any combination of opposition parties and independent deputies to vote in candidates without negotiating with the FSLN, although it would be possible for the PLC, the MVE or a combination of smaller parties and independents to negotiate bilaterally with the FSLN.
This fact is one of the main reasons for heightened mistrust between opposition factions at present. It is possible, for example, that instead of forcing Alemán to step down, Montealegre's smear campaign actually pushes Alemán into the FSLN's hands. Similarly, if Alemán delays too long, the FSLN could negotiate bilaterally with the MVE or with a combination of the other smaller factions in the National Assembly.
Oscar René Vargas, Oscar Castillo and Félix Maradiaga, three political analysts quoted in El Nuevo Diario on September 6th, all anticipate the notorious so-called "pacto" between the PLC and the FSLN to be relaunched before the end of the year. In other words, they predict a bilateral agreement between Nicaragua's two largest parties vis-a-vis the election of the above mentioned 25 top posts.
Undeniably, the division of the right wing is of tremedous benefit to the FSLN, which over the past ten years has demonstrated its skill in manipulating the bad feeling and mutual mistrust between right wing factions in its favour.
To have a chance of securing a united alliance going into next year's presidential elections, the opposition needs to either negotiate the election of the 25 posts with the FSLN as one united bloc, or simply hold out and not negotiate at all.
Given the inherent mistrust between the opposition's key players and the sheer amount of institutional influence up for grabs, though, neither of these two options will be particularly easy to achieve for Nicaragua's splintered and disorientated right wing opposition.